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Sunday, May 5, 2019

Sri Lanka’s affected economy depends on tourism and now it could get worse.

Introduction of Tourism Industry: The immediate economic consequences of Sri Lanka’s brutal Easter Sunday terror attacks are obvious. The damage to tourism is the most apparent; investments decisions might be delayed. However, as a country that had withstood more than three decades of terror prior to May 2009 and an economy that had shown resilient growth averaging 5% per annum in that period, Sri Lanka is certainly not a novice in managing the expected economic fallout.


Sri Lanka has a growing tourism industry. Since gaining independence from the British in 1947, Sri Lanka has continued to attract foreign investors and tourists to the island. The country's important placement also enables it to attract transit visitors into the island.

Over the years, many beautiful resorts, hotels and spas have opened. Incorporating the diverse culture of the country, the various Tourist Establishments here offer visitors a unique, yet memorable experience to remember with (SLTDA).

Tourism was Sri Lanka's third largest foreign exchange earner in 2018, and hopes to become number two in 2019. Sri Lanka is targeting three million tourists for 2019 Tourism Development Minister John Amaratunga said, after missing a 2.5 million target for 2018 partly due to a political and economic crisis triggered by Politicians. The country drew 2.3 million tourists in 2018 up 10.3 percent from a year earlier, missing a target of 2.5 million which was a growth of 18 percent.  

Sri Lanka collected at least 3.5 billion dollars in foreign exchange from tourism in 2018, the minister had previously said in an official statement. In 2017, foreign exchange earnings were over 3.9 billion dollars.

The total number of international tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka during March 2019 was 244,328. In comparison to March last Year, there was a growth of 4.7% when the arrivals were 233,382. This month, the largest source market for tourists was India, followed by the United Kingdom and China. Almost 93 % of tourists travelled by air to Sri Lanka.

Tourism impact of attack in Sri lanka.

Tourism is Sri Lanka’s third largest and fastest growing source of foreign currency accounting for almost $4.4 billion of gross domestic product in 2018.

Before Sunday, the Sri Lankan government could justifiably have expected tourism to continue its relentless pace of growth in 2019. However, beyond the mere fact of terrorism striking the country is the nature of the attacks.  Which specifically targeted a number of luxury hotels in the capital Colombo.

"The attacks will not only impact already weak economic activity (real GDP growth was at a 17-year low of 3.2% in 2018), but also the country's relatively vulnerable external liquidity position," Citibank's Asia desk said in a note, adding that the tourism sector would suffer the biggest blow of all. At least 39 of those killed in the attacks were foreign tourists. The Sri Lankan government has declared a state of emergency and several governments around the world have upgraded their travel advice for Sri Lanka.

With many countries issuing travel advisories and categorizing Sri Lanka as a high-risk country, the potential negative impact to the tourism industry is substantial.
Media reports state that a 50% drop in tourist arrivals is expected over the coming two months.

Cancellations likely, but too early to say.

Several travel companies have prepared for a wave of cancellations from tourists who were due to travel to Sri Lanka in the coming weeks and months.

India accounted for around 20% of tourists to Sri Lanka in 2018 (more than any other country), and two of its major airlines, Air India and Indigo, say they will allow passengers to delay or change flights without paying a fee. Sri Lankan Airlines, the national carrier, will do likewise.

However, it remains to be seen exactly how much the tragedy will affect tourism in the short term, with several travel companies, such as Thomas Cook India and MakeMyTrip.com, a major booking portal in India, issuing statements saying it was too early to assess the impact of the attacks on tourist traffic.

A Swiss Air way was came to Sri Lanka with only one passengers and this showing the situation of European especially Scandinavian view.

Government political intervention and expecting problem.

"The Sri Lanka tourism industry stands united with the rest of the world against terrorism; as we mourn this horrific tragedy, we must move forward with our enduring Sri Lankan resilience to restore the world's faith in our beautiful island home and our hospitality which is the heart of the Sri Lankan way of life," Sri Lanka Tourism said.

Minister John Amaratunga has convened a meeting of industry heads, from the Hotels Association of Sri Lanka (THASL), Colombo City Hotels Association (CCHA) and Sri Lanka Association of Inbound Tour Operators (SLAITO), to take stock of the damage as well as measures needed to ensure security in the future. Officials from the Tourism Ministry and Foreign Affairs, as well as Police, were present at the meeting. 

Chairman Kishu Gomes explained that it is important to review emergency response protocol in the immediate aftermath of the attacks.

Sri Lanka Tourism was focused on organizing our response in emergency care and assistance.

providing access to clear and accurate information and Working with all national and local law enforcement agencies and foreign missions to ensure the safety and security of tourists. Addressing security issues is a prerequisite for the revival of tourism.          

Solution from policy makers and traders/ business people.

Indeed, last December, the travel publisher Lonely Planet named Sri Lanka as the No.1 country to visit in 2019. Government is continue working closely with all relevant authorities to support all foreign nationals in the country. Sri Lankan police and Tri forces are working tirelessly to ensure the safety and security of all tourists currently in Sri Lanka. This is absolutely our first priority," said Gomes.

Sri Lanka Convention Bureau will also be present at IMEX in Frankfurt from the 21st to the 23rd of May. IMEX is a worldwide Exhibition for Incentive Travel, Meetings and Events, incorporating Meetings made in Germany. The show is patronized by nearly 160 countries representing national and regional tourist offices, major hotel groups, airlines, destination management companies, service providers, trade associations and more. Over 3962 hosted buyers from more than 86 world markets visit IMEX. The MICE sector is a major growth driver for the Sri Lanka market.

The only tourism and travel fair in Sri Lanka, Sancharaka Udawa, will be held on 7 and 8 June. This unique exhibition, now in its ninth edition is open to all businesses within the local tourism ecosystem and is organized by Sri Lanka Association of Tour Operators (SLAITO) in collaboration with the Sri Lanka Tourism Promotion Bureau (SLTPB). The main objective of the exhibition is to create a platform for small and medium service providers in the industry to network and build vital links with tour operators and enter the wider tourism industry.

Few justification to lesion learnt from other countries:

Terrorist attacks which struck Tunisia (2015) and Egypt (2013) led to sharp declines in the numbers of European tourists visiting those countries in the short term, but the overall picture is complex, according to the extensive academic research on the topic.

Quickly Recover: Much of the data shows that countries which are struck by terrorist attacks do not necessarily suffer a decline in tourism numbers, and even if they do, they can quickly recover.

France. In 2015 and 2016, there were several devastating terrorist attacks in the country which killed hundreds of people. France is traditionally the most popular tourist destination in the world, and while the numbers did take a hit in the immediate aftermath of the attacks in 2016, they surged in 2017 and 2018.

Given the importance of tourism to the country, the Sri Lankan government will surely be looking for ways to minimize the damage to the sector in the months ahead.

Ordinary Sri Lankans, dealing with the trauma and grief of Sunday is a much more important concern at the moment.

Summery
Given the impact of these events in terms of lives lost, damaged infrastructure and economic loss, it is clear that society must tackle these challenges head on. While every shock is different, what trends seem to reveal in terms of the travel and tourism industry is that destinations do bounce back in the medium to long term. How quickly they recover, however, depends on the country’s ability to manage the crisis both from a security and a PR perspective. Rather than managing crises in a reactive way, we should consider ways to be more proactive and look at how to implement the right measures to avoid them. This presents great opportunities for the industry and policy-makers to develop solutions to enhance security while enabling seamless travel.

To do this, we should not only enhance the current framework in which we operate, but also come up with innovative solutions and new models for travel. Within the current travel framework, we could implement comprehensive technologically enabled solutions to enhance security and efficiency, ranging from re-envisioning the future of checkpoints and border controls to the improvement of data analytic tools and the application of e-visas, regional visa agreements and the expansion of trusted traveler programmes.
Thinking beyond the current framework, leaders should consider the development of a new framework for global travelers, given the increasing consumption of international travel, but also the clear need to reconsider risk through a collaborative and cross-border approach.

Indeed, while travel has become a way of life for people across the globe, current frameworks often assess risk levels on the basis of an individual’s nationality. The concept of “global access” or a global trusted traveler programme should be developed as a tool to enhance security and be the catalyst to shift our system verifying eligibility to travel from “country of origin” to an individual-based system facilitated by global cooperation. Such a system would enable “low risk” passengers to travel in an expedited way across borders, while enhancing global security standards through better inter-governmental cooperation.

The mounting security concerns which have plagued society clearly show the need to reassess how we manage the movement of people. While the solution is not to close borders and reverse many of the positive developments of the past decade, we need to think together about how we can keep enabling society to experience the wonders of travel in a safe and secure environment.(World Economic Forum)

With one in every ten Sri Lankan families depending on tourism for their livelihood both directly and indirectly.  Sri Lanka Tourism is focused on ensuring that the right groundwork is laid to drive an effective and efficient recovery for this critical industry. "A task force is in place and having worked diligently over the course of the last week we are confident that a clear and actionable process is in place, resources allocated and global expertise procured to support the industry in its recovery.” (Chairman –SLDA). Sri Lanka could take lesson learnt from French example suggests recovery is possible in Tourism Sector.

Reference
News roundup Wednesday 16th January, 2019

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